Wednesday, October 27, 2021

China No.1 in Covid-19 vaccinations?

Those who praise China as No.! In vaccination should understand that the world has no means of verifying China's own figure for how many doses of the Covid-19 vaccine have been administered within the country. In terms of vaccine doses administered domestically, China had reached 2.2 billion on 6 October - compared with more than 923.5 million in India, 571.4 million administered in the EU, and 398.7 million in the US, according to BBC World in Data.

 Okay! Now remember the virus also was manufactured in China, and by mistake or design spread all over the world. When you make a deadly poison to kill others, generally you make the anti-dote simultaneously in order to protect yourself from unintended poisoning! China therefore could be also credited with manufacturing vaccines early on, on a large scale considering its huge population.

The data analytics company, Airfinity, has tracked global production and estimates that China has exported commercially 1.1 billion doses (as of 8 October) of its vaccines to 123 countries (as either bulk substances or finished doses). Of these, around 110 million have been purchased by the Covax global vaccine-sharing scheme to provide vaccines to lower-income countries.

In addition, according to UN data, China has so far delivered around 37 million doses as donations (as of 1 October) out of a total pledged of around 52 million.

Now those who belittle India’s achievement as they praise China see everything in terms of their political views. India is not Narendra Modi or RSS/BJP! India’s achievements are partly the achievements of the people of India and the system of administration. When team India wins a cricket match we feel India has won and it loses, we generally feel the team failed India. A possible reason for many countries including India lagging behind in vaccination is a lack of proper infrastructure, staffing constraints, and other issues which include vaccine hesitancy even in the First World countries, holding up the rollout of vaccinations.

India has done phenomenally well in vaccine manufacturing capability and the world over Indian vaccines have better acceptability than that of China, for some reason! India had exported about 66.4 million doses of its locally-made vaccines as of the end of May when exports were suspended.

Lastly, the tendency of normal human beings is to support their families, their dear ones, their state or country in all situations in which pride is a factor - “My brass is Gold”. In contemporary India, we do exactly the opposite! It is said that Civilizations die when they cease to believe in themselves! Indian intellectuals and Indian politicians who pretend away their Indian-ness, they pretend away their pride in themselves and wait for that eventual death..... 

Saturday, October 16, 2021

 What ails the oil industry?

The oil and gas industry is one of the largest sectors in the world economy in terms of dollar value, generating an estimated US Dollars 3.5 trillion in revenue annually. Oil is crucial to the global economic framework, especially for its largest producers: the United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada, and China.

According to a report of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development,) in 2019, 35.23 percent of all oil consumed in the OECD was related to motor vehicle usage in the road transport sector. A little less than 20 percent is used for the generation of electricity. Roughly 14 percent is used in the petrochemical industry.

 Fuel exports as a percentage of merchandise exports, 2013

 

Different countries have different reasons for reducing their dependence on oil. For producers listed above the fear is of the kitty getting smaller year after year due to pumping the available underground deposits. The concerns of oil users, in general, is the pollution issue and the price fluctuations. Some users like India are heavily dependent on imported petroleum products, and the volatile prices and tight supply situations are major worries. Mankind has now realized that the advantages of fossil fuels come with a devastating downside. We now understand that the release of carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels is warming our planet faster than anything we have seen in the geological record. One of the greatest challenges facing humanity today is slowing this warming before it changes our world beyond recognition. The universal consensus, therefore, is to work on alternate, safe, and sustainable energy sources. The trend is clear: according to a report by Ember and Agora Energiewende, 38% of Europe’s energy in 2020 came from renewable sources. Fossil-fuel generation accounted for 37% and the remaining quarter came from Nuclear.

Europe, the world’s largest market, being powered by majority renewable sources, proves that renewable energy can scale and become the dominant source of energy in complex and energy-intensive economies! I think this shift is a signal to American and Asian markets to make the transition faster. The only relevant question, therefore, is whether the transition will keep it's current ‘fast, but not fast enough’ pace!

Let us go to where the shoe pinches: In the US, the transportation sector, (dominated by the use of the nation’s highways, for both freight and passengers) is almost solely dependent on petroleum, and produces about one-third of the country’s share of greenhouse gas emissions arising from energy us. The current trend is plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) that use electricity plus any of the conventional fuels on a large scale to have a significant effect on petroleum consumption. Longer-term, after 2030, major sales of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (HFCVs) and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) are considered possible.

I think India could follow the US example before rushing to Evs straight because otherwise, the country’s huge automobile sector would collapse creating a gaping hole in the employment sector.  Coal and biomass are in abundant supply in India, and they can be converted to liquid fuels for use in existing and future vehicles with internal combustion and hybrid engines. This may have to wait for a more potent carbon-capture technology than what is available today.

Biomass is a renewable resource that, if properly produced and converted, can yield biofuels with lower greenhouse gas emissions than petroleum-based gasoline yields. In the USA it is mandatory to blend 10% Ethanol in Petrol since 2000. Our Govt has decided so in June 2014 through an executive order. Now Ethanol blending in Diesel and Petrol is becoming less and less profitable day by day to our Oil Manufacturing companies including the PSUs, and they are quite unhappy about it!

Clean energy can be manufactured in many technologies including; wind, solar PV, solar thermal, hydro, and biomass. It may be good to know that our solar installed capacity was 44.3 GW as of 31 August 2021. Modi government had an initial target of 20 GW capacity for 2022, which was achieved four years ahead of schedule! Solar power for industries is quintessential for meeting the 100 GW solar mission of Modi Government. Please note, out of the total 1247 MW rooftop solar installations as of December 2016, 34% was for industrial establishments! Industrial Solar Power Systems are gaining popularity in India with major industries resorting to solar power for avoiding grid outage situations. With the provision of open access in most of the states, industrial solar power systems are increasingly used by textile, cement, paper, steel, chemical, dairy, and ceramic industries to cut down their electricity expenses. Heavy peak usage and large available area make solar a perfect energy solution for industries.

Another new technology being discussed for industrial use is with iron as a circular fuel – iron being yet another resource available in plenty form its ores now exported by India! Combusting finely ground iron powder adding oxygen produces heat and rust – the only emissions of the process. Then, using renewable energy the rust can be converted back into iron via electrolysis. Given the availability of renewable energy for electrolysis, the entire process is carbon-free.

Among users, India ranks third after the US and China, though our consumption is roughly a fifth of the US and a third of that of China. The US, imports more than 50 percent of its fuel in spite of the so-called Shale Oil glut! India has around 80% import dependence on crude oil and 45% for natural gas/LNG. India’s crude oil import bill soared nearly threefold in the first quarter of the fiscal (Q1FY22) fuelled by a sharp rise in global oil prices to USD 24 billion, further raising concerns for policymakers. (Volume growth was, a modest 14.7% in the June quarter at 51.4 million tonnes.) Remember India’s total tax revenue is only USD138 billion! The total Excise duty collection from petrol and diesel is just about $40 billion. This is one of the main reasons for the urge to cut petroleum fuel by exploiting alternate energy sources.

India is not going ahead with strategies to cut down consumption of fossil fuels because of its concern with the environment! Damaging our economy is not certainly the way to deal with climate change as a member of the comity of nations. And in terms of oil, what will take its place? The world hasn’t found a good substitute for oil, in terms of its availability and fitness for purpose. Although the supply is finite, oil is plentiful and the technology to extract it continues to improve, making it ever-more economical to produce and use. The same is also largely true for natural gas.

Beyond the use as fuel, petroleum has significant growth potential. The current per capita consumption of petrochemicals products is low, but the demand for the same is growing. A wide range of chemicals like Urea, Caustic Soda, Soda Ash, Sulphuric Acid; Dyes, Dye Intermediates, , basic chemicals like Ethylene, Propylene, Benzene and Xylene; the intermediates like MEG, PAN and LAB etc fibre intermediates, synthetic fibre polymers, and elastomers and fine chemicals, speciality chemical... Per capita plastic consumption in India is still hovering at 7.0 kgs as compared to 46 kgs in China and 65 Kgs in Europe. This signifies huge potential for future growth going by the current global average per capital consumption.

Now about our cars: I have two beautiful cars running on petrol –Honda Accord and a CRV (my dream car) – and I am not ready to go for even a Tesla. But then, I am old and resistant to change! But I realize we are in the middle of the biggest revolution in motoring since Henry Ford's first production line started turning back in 1913! Many industry observers believe we have already passed the tipping point where sales of electric vehicles (EVs) will very rapidly overwhelm petrol and diesel cars.  The world’s big carmakers are getting ready for the change. Jaguar owned by Tatas plans to sell only electric cars from 2025. They have launched their electric compact car Nexon. Volvo from 2030 and the British sports car company Lotus says it would follow suit, selling only electric models from 2028. EVs the world over are able to travel farther than ever on a single charge, shaping the future and promoting smarter, cleaner transportation. Volkswagen, Hyundai, and Tesla were the top-selling electric car brands in Germany during the first quarter of 2021 while the VW Up was the favorite BEV in Q1. Just over a decade ago, Nissan became the first automaker to offer a mass-produced car – the hatchback Leaf- that ran on batteries alone. Mitsubishi i MiEV, was a pioneer, launched for fleet customers around the same time. But Japan, with its huge investment in gasoline-electric hybrids, has big reasons to proceed slowly. So the world ic changing! 

 In Defense of the US

Gross domestic product per capita is the fundamental measure of a society's material standard of living over time. Right now when people are making a lot of noise about China surging ahead with its economy, please note, the US economy is numero Uno still, and much higher than the next two economies put together! Though Europeans certainly live very well, and though both China and India are rapidly improving their citizens' standards of living, the United States remains indisputably ahead.

The MIT economist Robert Solow had in a paper substantiated that only about 12.5% of all growth in output per work-hour over a 40-year period he studies could be accounted for by increased use of capital; the remaining 87.5% was "attributable to technical change," or innovation. The US approach to achieving innovation has varied with the times, but it has generally demonstrated an almost ruthless pragmatism in implementing the core principles of free markets and strong property rights, overlaid with decisive government investments in infrastructure, human capital, and new technologies. I remember reading some time back that despite relatively small populations and lover scores across inputs like R&D, Switzerland and Sweden have produced many top global companies and at one point Switzerland ranked No.1, Sweden No.2, and the US was still ranked No.3.

For 100 years from 1870, the goals of conquering disease, educating the unschooled, and winning wars provided the strongest impetus for the US government's investments in innovation. This remains central to the American ethos, and in certain respects, the New Deal and later developmental interventions in Japan, and other countries during the post-World War II can be seen as extensions of this program, in which egalitarian ideas played an ever-increasing role.

It is so easy to give a backhanded compliment to the Americans saying “US industrial might and the blood of Russian soldiers that won the war”! Don’t forget the Soviet Union had signed a pact with Hitler ealier in the hope of dividing the world between them. But the Germans had other plans, and USSR had to be literally helped out in the war with Germany, and after the defeat of Germany, they swallowed the most industrialized part of Germany and colonized it for 43 years, while the Americans helped the defeated Germany to develop a decent democracy, quite independent of US influence though part of NATO!

Yes, the USA replaced the British Empire in politico-economic spheres without being an imperial power. It helped democracies and fought Communism which was antithetical to modern democracy.

You may remember it was an American President, a former General, Eisenhower who criticized the Military-Industrial complex. It can be seen that while military-to-commercial 'spin-offs' declined, gradually "commercial-to-military 'spin-ons' boomed. US military incursions and wars have been numbered but on analysis, it could be seen that the US spent huge resources in those wars with no economic benefit at allT Take the Iraq war, though critics said it was about exploiting Iraq’s considerable oil deposits, but the US didn’t touch it. In Syria, it was again a couple of trillion dollars spent with no benefit, except defeating the ISIL. In Afghanistan, they spent 3 trillion dollars trying to promote democracy for 20 years, and left the country abruptly without any benefit on either side!

The Leftists who worry about the huge corporate salaries, bonuses, etc however seem to be happy about billionaires like George Soros, Pierre Omidyar et all, who love taking pro-Left positions for it assuages their conscience for becoming billionaires through pure speculation or the sin of good luck!

The comments about Donald Trump are totally unreasonable. That man had good education, he had a good running business, and he came into politics just to show what a decent gentleman do in a democratic polity. Before the “China Virus” invaded the world, Donald Trump built the world’s most prosperous economy. America gained 7 million new jobs – more than three times experts’ projections. the unemployment rate reaching 3.5 percent, the lowest in a half-century. Jobless claims hit a nearly 50-year low the number of people claiming unemployment insurance as a share of the population hit its lowest on record. Yes, he could be called names for his slogan MAGA, but he did bring jobs, factories, and industries back to the USA. Trump’s policies provided the average American household an extra $3,100 every year. He negotiated with Japan, arm twisted a recalcitrant China, and so on to establish fairer and reciprocal trade.

Trump’s prospects for re-election were dragged down by a pandemic. He declared a National Emergency on early in March 2020 when there were less than 2000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the US, and fewer than deaths when Europe is now the "epicenter" of what was later to be a global pandemic.  The media criticized him; the Democratic called him when he stopped flights from China, ad implemented shutdowns and social distancing across almost every US state which succeeded in stopping the exponential spread of the virus. In hard-hit states like New York, Michigan, and Louisiana, the pandemic's growth curve bent downward soon. What was once a runaway crisis in these hotspots has been controlled. Yet in an election year, the Democrats and the media controlled by them could run a campaign against Trump and fail the country! He was a victim of propaganda and a ganging up the riff-raff flowing as illegal immigrants into the country. They created a nationwide uprising over ‘systemic racism’ which was a big lie. (Black Democrat and Harvard sociologist Orlando Patterson had written as early as in the early 1990s: "The sociological truths are that America, while still flawed in its race relations and its stubborn refusal to institute a rational, universal welfare system, is now the least racist white-majority society in the world; has a better record of legal protection of minorities than any other society, white or Black; offers more opportunities to a greater number of Black persons than any other society, including all those of Africa.) Even in defeat, Trump won millions more votes than he did four years ago. It was hardly the abject repudiation of Trump’s ideas and methods!

Joe Biden of whom ex-US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said, he “has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades” is POTUS46! I believe the decline of America your friend writes has started with Joe Biden Presidency. I saw it as he took a victory lap over a botched, haphazard evacuation calling it a “success” when so many American citizens and those who helped the U.S. war effort were been left behind in Afghanistan! Biden turned a twenty-year victory at the cost of $3trillion over Islamic barbarism in the country that attacked the US on 9/11 into a massive defeat, abandoned massive airbases, and $90 billion in advanced weaponry without a fight! That is the beginning of American decline for you.

Biden’s soft socialism would extend federal entitlements to an additional 21 million – the largest expansion of the welfare state since LBJ’s Great Society. More than half of working-age households would be on the dole, in one form or another. This includes 80% of single parents and 57% of couples with children. New programs will include free community college tuition for families earning 1.5 times the median income, all day-care expenses above 7% of family income for children under 5, a cap on rents based on income, and let’s not forget Medicaid for All. Is that increasing wealth or increasing dependence?

In education, employment, everywhere the vote bak politics is making grades. The “diversity rationale,” decides the selection of students and faculty in Universities, which in turn has given rise to a vast, lucrative “diversity industry.” This industry is now firmly established, at many mid-level universities like UC Davis, and its machinations reach the level of high art as you approach the very top of the ladder - not only at colleges like Harvard but also at crème-de-la-crème enterprises of all kinds, from the New York Times to Goldman Sachs to Google, where the job of diversity experts is to provide exactly the right amount and the right type of “diversity” to suit those institutions’ essentially - indeed, fiercely - exclusionary subcultures. There are diversity consultants to mix in just enough of a token sprinkling of underqualified blacks and Latinos to keep these places from looking like apartheid-era Sun City, South Africa, as well as to make the privileged white core look open-minded.

But Asians? Among the competing victimhoods of Blacks, Hispanics and other, Asians, who come to the US for higher education, research, etc, and rise are as undesirable as the Whites! Kenny Xu records in his definitive new book ‘An Inconvenient Minority: The Attack on Asian American Excellence and the Fight for Meritocracy’, an Asian student wanting to get into Harvard in 2009 (and the injustice certainly hasn’t disappeared since then) “had to score an astounding 450 points higher on a 1600-point SAT test than a Black student to have the same chance of admission.” I forget it now, they have even a new description for Asians linking them to the White oppressors!